MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f4157903688a7a2ac87d74a1279c4c3ba14c4cf5e3ad0d0c611c06dedd220df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 18,793$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,649.73 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 11,400$6,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,130.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 8,887$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,887.04 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 7,500$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 5,475$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.42 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 2,854$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.38 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 2,736$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 1,520$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.08 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 1,384$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 1,375$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.42 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,150$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 1,127$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 982.23$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.43 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 11c | 945$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 763$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…3eafbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 310$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 289.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 287.72$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…b0abbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 263.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 177.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedcf…0321backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…d84cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 145$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 130.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 90.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…cd79backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 88.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…4d6cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb98…0275backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 36.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 211 | 46.4%98 W · 113 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Dodgers vs. Blue JaysDodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.