MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27d111cf86a9982c40aae555f2269996865993e50461bb867e148c1995ec3440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 52c | 6,229$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.49 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 54c | 5,848$3,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,158.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d36…c63dbacked Under | 56c | 3,206$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 2,219$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.42 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 44c | 2,166$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.57 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ae…93ecbacked Over | 45c | 1,600$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 55c | 784.55$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.33 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 46c | 717.83$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.63 | 380 | 57.4%218 W · 162 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Under | 5c | 650$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 2c | 637.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 53c | 406.17$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 45c | 400.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.04 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 297$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 247$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 47c | 231.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Over | 47c | 153.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…b0d6backed Over | 46c | 133.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…1808backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 46c | 71.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd10…f69fbacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…76f2backed Over | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Dodgers vs. Blue JaysDodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.