NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bdbe427e911938b99592dbd32b79e8859099b935bb5371ac4333af2a749a72a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bulls | 53c | 54,258$28,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,701.22 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 47c | 33,910$15,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,998.04 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…1efebacked Hornets | 48c | 10,421$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls | 53c | 9,370$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,370.06 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…0c9fbacked Hornets | 48c | 8,333$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…6ca3backed Hornets | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 47c | 5,839$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Bulls | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Hornets | 47c | 4,362$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.94 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Bulls | 51c | 4,014$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.1 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 48c | 3,023$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.06 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…55b3backed Bulls | 52c | 2,852$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.95 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…a9c5backed Bulls | 52c | 2,762$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.91 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 48c | 2,047$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hornets | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…c31fbacked Bulls | 52c | 1,969$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.17 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bulls | 53c | 1,757$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.79 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Hornets | 48c | 1,742$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.17 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Hornets | 48c | 1,338$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Bulls | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 48c | 1,100$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Bulls | 53c | 1,063$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.2 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 52c | 824.09$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.44 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Bulls | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.06 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Hornets | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Hornets | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 49c | 392.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Bulls | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Hornets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Hornets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Hornets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Hornets | 48c | 203.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Hornets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Hornets | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Bulls | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Hornets | 48c | 101.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Bulls | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Hornets | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hornets | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Hornets | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Bulls | 53c | 74.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed Bulls | 52c | 69.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Bulls | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 51c | 55.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Hornets | 48c | 54.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Bulls | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hornets | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Hornets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Hornets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…7e95backed Hornets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Bulls | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Hornets | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Hornets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Bulls | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Hornets | 49c | 28.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls | 48c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…4761backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.