NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15976c0ce12da1f783fcbd6c1daedca250cf8acccc146a5a88e206339c4cbc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a9…676ebacked Under | 51c | 15,800$8,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,058 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…e5b3backed Over | 49c | 15,800$7,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,058 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…a8eebacked Under | 52c | 15,400$8,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,008 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd49…4b3bbacked Over | 48c | 15,400$7,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,008 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 48c | 10,931$5,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,683.89 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…02f9backed Under | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 7,796$3,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.37 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 52c | 4,360$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 51c | 3,933$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.33 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 1,812$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 52c | 768$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.36 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 575.84$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.04 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 530$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 49c | 132.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…20eabacked Over | 48c | 104.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 52c | 86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 52c | 81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 54c | 70.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 52c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 48.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…6887backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…dbf8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.