NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9da0d26a4e6d92e05ad4da209faefc217f64a3b412b6065dbfe2183916591ff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Bulls, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 50c | 50,685$25,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,130.88 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bulls | 50c | 31,913$15,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,918.43 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Bulls | 49c | 21,553$10,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,561.07 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 47c | 5,828$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…6ca3backed Hornets | 52c | 2,981$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Hornets | 52c | 1,967$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.29 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Hornets | 55c | 1,773$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.85 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Hornets | 52c | 1,441$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.68 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls | 48c | 1,239$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.84 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls | 48c | 1,138$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.85 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Hornets | 54c | 1,094$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.44 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bulls | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…6c1cbacked Bulls | 46c | 998.96$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Hornets | 54c | 997.12$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Hornets | 50c | 950$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…4867backed Hornets | 53c | 886.79$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Bulls | 47c | 559.31$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.88 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Bulls | 48c | 528.81$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.86 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Hornets | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Hornets | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Bulls | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Hornets | 51c | 379.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.19 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bulls | 48c | 302.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Hornets | 53c | 300.09$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.09 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bulls | 47c | 279.72$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 50c | 276.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…5a57backed Bulls | 49c | 240.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Hornets | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Bulls | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Hornets | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Hornets | 52c | 174.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Hornets | 52c | 174$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Hornets | 52c | 152$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Bulls | 49c | 128$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Hornets | 53c | 122.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Hornets | 52c | 104.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Bulls | 47c | 104.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Hornets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Bulls | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Hornets | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Hornets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Hornets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Hornets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Hornets | 55c | 91.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Hornets | 54c | 91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Hornets | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 50c | 55.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Hornets | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Hornets | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Hornets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Hornets | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Hornets | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Hornets | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Bulls | 48c | 41.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Hornets | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Bulls | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Hornets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Bulls | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Bulls | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bulls | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 52c | 34.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Bulls | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Bulls | 48c | 29.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Bulls | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…aadabacked Hornets | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Hornets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Bulls | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Bulls | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bulls | 48c | 23.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Bulls | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Bulls | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Bulls | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef73…9f32backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa86…f499backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…8f17backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901c…e85dbacked Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…9daabacked Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…0bd6backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.