NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27aa383c909cfa8b63b9756fae63274f40c92e87d453866a912d9290dc32e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Hornets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 53c | 3,033$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.29 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 47c | 1,517$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 47c | 1,380$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 58c | 1,198$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…11cebacked Hornets | 42c | 939.05$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 41c | 285.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Bulls | 49c | 156.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Bulls | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Bulls | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Bulls | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Bulls | 59c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Hornets | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Hornets | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Hornets | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Hornets | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Hornets | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Hornets | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Hornets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Hornets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Hornets | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.