NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536f17fef826259d254eead0d5ebb0445f537269f3011a60fb4f02294d2dffb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 54c | 19,350$10,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,480 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 14,446$6,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,809.48 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 14,392$7,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,118.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…513abacked Over | 49c | 9,181$4,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,641.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…1ccbbacked Over | 51c | 8,058$4,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,910.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6f…a51fbacked Over | 51c | 3,931$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 53c | 3,051$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.83 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318e…6373backed Under | 49c | 2,455$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 1,907$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.88 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 1,640$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.34 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 54c | 1,291$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,019$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 812$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.88 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Under | 50c | 550$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 51c | 549.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 55c | 509.09$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…0722backed Under | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 50c | 276$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 50c | 276$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 53c | 103.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 98.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 50.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Over | 53c | 47.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…32ddbacked Over | 51c | 42.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.