NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9da2a01bf7307b8481141e4e50ca1ff93508c94f4f7762fb237d058fa528e329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc96…8a0bbacked Under | 53c | 16,800$8,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,904 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…a5d8backed Over | 47c | 16,800$7,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,904 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 48c | 5,471$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.66 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…513abacked Over | 46c | 4,065$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,822$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 1,008$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.4 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 55c | 545.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…c31fbacked Under | 53c | 458$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked Over | 47c | 458$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Under | 55c | 363.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 256.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 212$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 46c | 88.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…a121backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…7052backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…c99fbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.