NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6342a8e8d5de40e46b5a0fcee94d3022bc1f8df666162136730755013da0a822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 55c | 7,652$4,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.56 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Under | 45c | 6,133$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 49c | 5,316$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,716.12 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 54c | 1,515$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.1 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,474$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8475…0eeabacked Under | 55c | 1,129$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 53c | 1,057$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 46c | 940$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.4 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a6…fab1backed Under | 45c | 900$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 53c | 675.5$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.02 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 640$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked Under | 46c | 389.44$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 279.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Under | 45c | 263.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 54c | 260$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Under | 45c | 226.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 45c | 126$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 45c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 63c | 97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 38c | 89.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 66c | 68.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 47c | 49.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 36c | 34.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 36c | 33.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…140fbacked Under | 55c | 18.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.