TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Hornets, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,774,742
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,923,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,774,742 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 832 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Hornets25c142,555$35,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,098.7151844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets25c110,649$27,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,418.952,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers75c94,317$70,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,538.132,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Hornets26c84,000$22,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,065.0417031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers76c71,714$54,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,115.225,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Hornets22c68,648$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets24c47,409$11,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,378.1887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Cavaliers75c44,723$33,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,023.381,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Cavaliers75c40,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cavaliers76c36,257$27,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,809.351,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hornets25c28,988$7,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,246.9672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets24c28,698$6,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,973.862,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Hornets6c28,062$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers75c26,000$19,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4954,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Hornets3c25,000$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.7126637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Hornets25c25,000$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,25012147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers76c23,995$18,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,769.023,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers76c22,889$17,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,563.359,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hornets9c22,347$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.311,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Cavaliers77c20,998$16,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,829.554456.8%25 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Hornets1c20,482$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4564517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cavaliers75c20,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00037557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Cavaliers77c18,838$14,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,257.4444654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers76c18,688$14,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,552.491,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets19c16,815$3,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,242.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Cavaliers76c16,577$12,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,016.671,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Cavaliers77c15,503$11,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,593.944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hornets17c15,322$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,677.581,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Cavaliers76c15,000$11,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,55019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hornets16c15,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Hornets25c15,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Hornets26c15,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Hornets21c14,969$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Hornets1c11,643$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.798820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cec…1a24backed Hornets26c11,538$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+103.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers74c11,250$8,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9252,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Cavaliers76c10,902$8,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.486358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Cavaliers79c10,218$8,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.4752460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Hornets25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Cavaliers74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9227747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4f…f290backed Hornets25c9,107$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.973237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Cavaliers75c8,098$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.5117354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers79c7,520$5,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.714,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Hornets23c7,500$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72547028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Cavaliers76c7,425$5,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.114549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Cavaliers75c7,400$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8505655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x724b…e780backed Cavaliers75c6,900$5,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7252259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Cavaliers75c6,704$5,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.3534456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hornets19c6,618$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.7776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Cavaliers77c6,612$5,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.6913455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Cavaliers76c6,579$4,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.2648944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hornets24c6,250$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hornets25c6,155$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.8647748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Hornets23c6,072$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.5336741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Cavaliers75c6,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hornets16c6,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Hornets6c5,979$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.5585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6386…2bb4backed Hornets9c5,673$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Hornets10c5,472$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.0134227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Cavaliers75c5,000$3,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.419451.1%48 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Hornets25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked Cavaliers77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+65.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc374…46f4backed Hornets23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cavaliers75c4,988$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.0172450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6603…959ebacked Hornets24c4,872$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.272055%11 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Hornets1c4,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Cavaliers75c4,500$3,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.9878445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Hornets23c4,493$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.871,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets25c4,100$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0251,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec1…28bdbacked Hornets25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.923636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…316bbacked Hornets7c4,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702934.5%10 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Cavaliers76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9911149.5%55 W · 56 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50fd…cd30backed Hornets23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcccb…e141backed Hornets3c3,937$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40f…b0ebbacked Hornets14c3,930$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+733.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers75c3,587$2,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8812,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hornets16c3,436$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.9881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cavaliers74c3,390$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.461,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets22c3,351$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.9982442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Cavaliers76c3,300$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79222637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Cavaliers75c3,292$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82346342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x447f…d110backed Hornets10c3,201$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.2811834.7%41 W · 77 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Hornets24c3,112$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.9214254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Hornets23c3,050$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.534855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Hornets20c3,028$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.7450838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Hornets16c3,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47542640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Cavaliers76c2,963$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.1621455.1%118 W · 96 L-1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hornets26c2,938$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.3285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3d…55b3backed Hornets25c2,908$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.373548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Cavaliers76c2,829$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.0731538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Cavaliers75c2,820$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7054100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+117.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x872b…c3c0backed Hornets15c2,820$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.991513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hornets30c2,750$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.51,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed Cavaliers76c2,670$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.974961.2%30 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Hornets16c2,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40021923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Hornets25c2,356$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58933735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Hornets3c2,320$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.253234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7f…9550backed Cavaliers75c2,249$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.341850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cca…a619backed Cavaliers77c2,200$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5061154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Hornets2c2,100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364200.7%3 W · 417 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.