NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9110319787f97172216367273c5d2ddde98934e4e08504fcf5584cf6098e1407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 53c | 5,842$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.26 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 48c | 4,216$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.61 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…3e25backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,290$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…aa56backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…a5d8backed Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,778$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.14 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Under | 51c | 1,222$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.05 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 51c | 1,045$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.02 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,037$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.31 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 587.87$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.57 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 48c | 510.42$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 496.57$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Under | 46c | 434.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 312$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 49c | 202.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 52c | 191.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…7236backed Over | 49c | 159.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 49c | 126.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…0836backed Under | 11c | 104.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 48c | 85.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 61.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 51c | 58.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…66a8backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 24.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Hornets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.