NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75fa9e4907b0ea0c056daa0196da1e9721ec97e3d07c488906b9b1dea80972c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Cavaliers, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 52c | 2,402$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Cavaliers | 3c | 2,400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Cavaliers | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked Cavaliers | 2c | 2,100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Cavaliers | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 47c | 1,246$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 52c | 1,118$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.19 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Cavaliers | 25c | 640$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Hornets | 44c | 590.91$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.91 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Hornets | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Cavaliers | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 485.45$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 54c | 463.16$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.11 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 353.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Cavaliers | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 220.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 50c | 213.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 51c | 205.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Hornets | 45c | 205$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb031…ceb6backed Hornets | 46c | 125$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Hornets | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Hornets | 44c | 109$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Hornets | 30c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Hornets | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Cavaliers | 56c | 99.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cavaliers | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Hornets | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Cavaliers | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Hornets | 45c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Hornets | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Hornets | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Cavaliers | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hornets | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Cavaliers | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Hornets | 39c | 49.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Cavaliers | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Cavaliers | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Hornets | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Hornets | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Cavaliers | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Hornets | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Cavaliers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Hornets | 51c | 33.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 49c | 30.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Cavaliers | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Cavaliers | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Cavaliers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed Cavaliers | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Cavaliers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Cavaliers | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…b729backed Cavaliers | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Cavaliers | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Hornets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.