NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ddebda186b314873f81633e3172347c8b60ae638380004d4e51fb1e763bd13c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 45c | 89,656$40,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,345.1 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 55c | 40,000$22,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,000 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 55c | 16,324$8,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,345.72 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 55c | 13,683$7,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,157.23 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…3e25backed Under | 45c | 9,187$4,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,138.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 7,169$3,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,225.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 50c | 5,018$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 55c | 3,647$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.3 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 50c | 2,192$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.98 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 55c | 2,090$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.5 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 55c | 1,800$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 55c | 1,140$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 977$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.93 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 46c | 484.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 55c | 438.18$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.18 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 5c | 373.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…c29bbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 223$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 55c | 223$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 354 | 38.1%135 W · 219 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 102.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…66a8backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Over | 80c | 85.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 20c | 82.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3866…fb73backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 55c | 72.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 43c | 67.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…520cbacked Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980b…8bfabacked Under | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 35.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…4240backed Over | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 46c | 24.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…87c7backed Under | 46c | 21.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Hornets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.