TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. Bleda (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Horthof Horth, Bleda
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Horth36c78,054$28,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,864.595244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bleda66c60,000$39,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,600825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Bleda61c35,000$21,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,3501060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Horth34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,2006850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1b…724fbacked Bleda61c6,000$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6304981.6%40 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+22.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bleda66c5,996$3,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,954.027233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Horth34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3005440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Horth38c4,473$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.3528849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked Bleda4c3,900$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Horth39c2,520$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.2518038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Horth40c2,406$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.68940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Horth36c2,325$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.628840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Horth33c2,258$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.320933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Horth39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22017055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Bleda4c1,800$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-60.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Bleda1c1,733$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.33402.5%1 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-88.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Horth33c1,700$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.9823537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bleda62c1,554$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.9330039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Horth39c1,538$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.182040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefa8…a55abacked Bleda67c1,488$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+99.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bleda64c1,128$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.7811746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bleda67c1,018$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.6333253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Bleda66c1,001$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.696533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Bleda62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6206060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Bleda60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.917850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Horth40c958.79$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.276334.9%22 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Bleda66c843.84$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.939228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bleda62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Horth80c787.81$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.568248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed Bleda61c600$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3682646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Bleda66c587$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.427052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Bleda57c543.56$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.315240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Horth40c444.27$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.6615641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Bleda70c428.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bleda20c417.96$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5120139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7762…309ebacked Bleda64c409$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.762552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Bleda66c403.29$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.174425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Horth38c383.83$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2312446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Bleda60c362.5$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.536655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Bleda69c358.03$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24826140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc007…1639backed Horth40c354.84$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Horth35c337.54$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Horth40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1807736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Bleda67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20135664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Horth38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1862540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Horth40c297.86$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Horth34c292.61$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1229151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Horth31c262.32$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18121044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Bleda26c250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6512449.2%61 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7263…9422backed Horth43c232.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Horth43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5611332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Horth39c209.15$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.582259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Bleda69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13839959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6470…aac7backed Bleda62c173.52$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.592166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Bleda67c170.15$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11413437.3%50 W · 84 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb66…8990backed Horth41c160$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fa…24edbacked Bleda59c160$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…9c15backed Bleda59c160$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ae…9910backed Horth41c160$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Bleda63c159.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.15757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf09…0bbbbacked Horth41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Horth38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9314827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…5d00backed Bleda59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Horth34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.065356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Horth38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03de…4bfdbacked Bleda64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Bleda62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626851.5%35 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3984backed Bleda66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Bleda62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70df…0f22backed Bleda62c91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Bleda66c90.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Horth34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.244139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Horth36c88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.453354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Horth30c86.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3548749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7604…78b5backed Bleda60c84.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518356.6%47 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc64a…ed3cbacked Bleda62c80.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-63.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x02f3…0a58backed Horth38c79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.988047.5%38 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Bleda65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4291…b6bdbacked Horth39c75.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.961936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Horth40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce2e…3e5abacked Bleda63c63.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Horth42c60.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.576755.2%37 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0cdd…11bebacked Bleda66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.64337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Horth38c53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.861154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Horth35c51.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.753534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Bleda70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa226…5092backed Horth38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf90c…f49cbacked Bleda61c49.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f4…d0f6backed Bleda62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24a3…ccd8backed Horth39c48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Horth30c44.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1133132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Horth39c44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.044027.5%11 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x54e1…9de8backed Bleda65c43.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.25749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf48d…02d6backed Horth39c43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Bleda70c42.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015139.7%60 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked Bleda66c40.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279450%47 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Horth38c40.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9916736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda7…3e66backed Horth35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267350.7%37 W · 36 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bleda62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Bleda67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.