College Football · resolved market
Spread: Western Michigan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea25f5feefaa4541c4063685862e3a02ad69e389782cf65e9e37e6645f07e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Michiganof Western Michigan, Miami (OH)
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Western Michigan | 50c | 79,933$39,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,966.66 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 75,895$37,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,947.55 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Western Michigan | 50c | 23,181$11,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,641.35 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 9,156$4,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,577.78 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 8,181$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,090.5 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Western Michigan | 49c | 5,264$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.62 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 4,168$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.72 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Miami (OH) | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 1,291$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 964.99$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.8 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Western Michigan | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked Miami (OH) | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 317$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Western Michigan | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Miami (OH) | 52c | 209$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 182.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 155.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Miami (OH) | 52c | 146.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Western Michigan | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Western Michigan | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 58.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Western Michigan | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 49.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Miami (OH) | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Western Michigan | 50c | 26.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Western Michigan | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Western Michigan | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Western Michigan (-2.5)this page
- Miami (OH) vs. Western MichiganWestern Michigan won
- Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan: 1H MoneylineWestern Michigan won
- O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Western Michigan (-1.5)Western Michigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.