College Football · resolved market
Spread: Notre Dame (-32.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff49e72b7928df57b5278c385940453e2cf54e679cb93683855eb6ffc293de1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stanfordof Notre Dame, Stanford
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Stanford | 51c | 16,068$8,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,873.32 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Notre Dame | 49c | 8,487$4,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,158.57 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Notre Dame | 48c | 5,969$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,892.03 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Notre Dame | 49c | 4,170$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.3 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Stanford | 51c | 3,136$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.96 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Notre Dame | 49c | 3,070$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.32 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Stanford | 52c | 1,894$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.19 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Notre Dame | 50c | 1,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stanford | 50c | 802$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Stanford | 54c | 722.22$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.22 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Notre Dame | 46c | 722.22$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Notre Dame | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stanford | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Stanford | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Stanford | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Stanford | 35c | 283.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.15 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Stanford | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Notre Dame | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Stanford | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Stanford | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Notre Dame | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Stanford | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Notre Dame | 49c | 70.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Notre Dame | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Notre Dame | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Notre Dame | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Notre Dame | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Notre Dame | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Stanford | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Notre Dame (-32.5)this page
- Notre Dame vs. StanfordNotre Dame won
- Notre Dame vs. Stanford: O/U 49.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-31.5)Stanford won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.