College Football · resolved market
Notre Dame vs. Stanford
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa7475e7579827dbea6b7b0825b72632f7264bfa675e006343fc3c5380ae065a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Notre Dame, Stanford
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4feb…dd3bbacked Stanford | 2c | 33,324$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stanford | 2c | 18,056$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.34 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…e868backed Stanford | 2c | 11,132$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.91 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Stanford | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…c94dbacked Stanford | 2c | 4,852$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Stanford | 3c | 2,933$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…8bf7backed Stanford | 2c | 1,833$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Stanford | 3c | 1,680$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Stanford | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…ee77backed Stanford | 2c | 1,404$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…5bfbbacked Stanford | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Stanford | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…e2a4backed Stanford | 2c | 813.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stanford | 2c | 757.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…361fbacked Stanford | 3c | 666.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…1390backed Stanford | 3c | 519.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…c575backed Stanford | 2c | 501.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…ff45backed Stanford | 3c | 391.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Stanford | 3c | 328.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Stanford | 3c | 286$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Stanford | 4c | 285.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Notre Dame vs. Stanfordthis page
- Notre Dame vs. Stanford: O/U 49.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-31.5)Stanford won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-32.5)Stanford won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.