World Politics · resolved market
Will Jeannette Jara win between 28% and 32% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688c63f853be9430f1ce6fe3889a428d89bf355d6bbcf58a72a51a11d5d74733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c2…55c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,774$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.78 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 28c | 1,067$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.69 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 777.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 35c | 555$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 76c | 524.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…34aabacked Yes | 27c | 397.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 36c | 386.06$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 359.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 29c | 302.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 34c | 295.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 241.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 232.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 71c | 214.8$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 38c | 195.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 14c | 149.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 71c | 141.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 31c | 120.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 118.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…d5b4backed Yes | 35c | 114.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…77ffbacked Yes | 28c | 107.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Yes | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…3793backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 90.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 77.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 34c | 76.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bf…cd52backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…32fbbacked No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…ed9cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 38c | 31.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…2f80backed No | 60c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b87…0cbbbacked No | 59c | 24.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 28% and 32% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Jeannette Jara win at least 32% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will Jeannette Jara win less than 20% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.