World Politics · resolved market
Will Jeannette Jara win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a2b960dba1167d94aa313e2d21ebe6a6e8e447cb395dd28220ac9f3cac70382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 16c | 1,323$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.31 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…55c3backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 60c | 696.31$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 57c | 430.47$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.16 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…e170backed Yes | 30c | 377.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 20c | 330.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.91 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 7c | 315.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 20c | 302.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…34aabacked Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c86…923fbacked Yes | 27c | 291.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb219…a9f2backed Yes | 25c | 277.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +306%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 241.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.47 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 24c | 207.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 59c | 206.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…ceb6backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…0ab8backed Yes | 68c | 198.59$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…d5b4backed Yes | 25c | 161.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 19c | 160.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 22c | 131.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 121.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 117.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bf…cd52backed Yes | 21c | 95.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 91.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 85.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b276backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 78c | 62.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 27c | 58.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 20c | 52.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…0d2cbacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 34.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…d755backed No | 79c | 33.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c1…c55fbacked No | 79c | 28.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…8e69backed Yes | 68c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…b449backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 16.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Jeannette Jara win at least 32% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 28% and 32% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win less than 20% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.