World Politics · resolved market
Will Jeannette Jara win at least 32% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7ce7bcfb38bb09efab240d3446deaf4cd9ebb2ea8315799705281fe1dcde311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd20…8dfdbacked Yes | 26c | 23,860$6,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,164.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…14c4backed Yes | 32c | 6,833$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked No | 73c | 5,089$3,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.64 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 70c | 3,452$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.84 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 66c | 3,429$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.6 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 71c | 3,161$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf922…e9c7backed No | 71c | 1,600$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed No | 70c | 1,424$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed No | 76c | 1,414$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.96 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…7cc5backed No | 71c | 1,381$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 68c | 1,333$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.26 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…92a0backed Yes | 39c | 1,299$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3d…ea95backed Yes | 33c | 1,227$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed No | 68c | 1,200$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,060$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…55c3backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 26c | 978.96$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 34c | 800$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.35 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 18c | 668.68$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 31c | 595.92$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 26c | 485.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 9c | 402.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 66c | 342.59$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 24c | 333.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 321.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed No | 67c | 315.33$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 42c | 302.58$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 56c | 267.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 41c | 241.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c86…923fbacked No | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked No | 73c | 205.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 13c | 180.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 175$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…0ab8backed Yes | 27c | 173.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 34c | 161.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…0660backed Yes | 33c | 135.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 130.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 118.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…7e26backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…8f8abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…6accbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 36c | 98.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 93.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 78.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…a842backed Yes | 25c | 74.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 76c | 70.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 48.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 47.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…ba51backed No | 69c | 36.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…433dbacked No | 68c | 36.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8ee8backed Yes | 34c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…3ab7backed No | 68c | 30.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 57c | 28.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 43c | 28.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 75c | 25.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…f788backed Yes | 50c | 22.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 66c | 17.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeannette Jara win at least 32% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will Jeannette Jara win between 28% and 32% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win less than 20% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.