Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796fd9a7040dda3bbaa71def303ebb8bfa41403dcae74ab7418498a407ee59e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 2c | 1,516$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 4c | 1,309$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed No | 60c | 1,094$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.16 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 3c | 1,010$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed No | 8c | 665.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 75c | 607.51$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +254.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 34c | 587.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.51 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed No | 2c | 584$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 67c | 564.65$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed No | 4c | 466.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 53c | 308.59$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 280.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.64 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 44c | 266.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 224.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 63c | 218.82$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 52c | 198.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 63c | 188.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…179cbacked No | 8c | 176.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 174.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 49c | 166.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 50c | 161.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 12c | 132.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 38c | 125.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 61c | 124.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 122.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 36c | 103.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 64c | 101.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 71c | 98.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 35c | 93.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 77c | 66.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…3740backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 80c | 44.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 37c | 41.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 70c | 35.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 48c | 35.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 30.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 69c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…1614backed Yes | 66c | 28.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 55c | 27.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…1404backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…46c4backed No | 68c | 14.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°F or below on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or higher on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.