UFC · resolved market
Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf97c05311dad99d2209e2549421f491536636bd856ca162e0d0772fa957e8a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 47c | 4,645$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.87 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 53c | 3,750$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.78 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 2,666$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes | 44c | 1,603$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 53c | 1,541$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.87 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed No | 56c | 486$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 57c | 373.95$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.82 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 62c | 343.68$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.77 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 33c | 223.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.87 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 195.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 60c | 195.74$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed No | 54c | 185$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 57c | 173$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 41c | 170$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked No | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 59c | 169.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…5afbbacked No | 56c | 149.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 56c | 134.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 51c | 123$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa668…f0f1backed Yes | 47c | 122.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked No | 61c | 119$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Yes | 44c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Yes | 43c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Yes | 44c | 84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Yes | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb4…1011backed Yes | 42c | 75.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Yes | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 67.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Yes | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Yes | 43c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…dae3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…fdd7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d69…beecbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…4a81backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Yes | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2d71backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…83ffbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 45c | 26.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.