UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7f1e4876db5d8d5f7ea7e78fddbdee8c87cd526d0e8d507d3b2926e9afb1e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked No | 66c | 325$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…afb3backed Yes | 36c | 279.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 64c | 265.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 65c | 255$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 66c | 180$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed No | 66c | 159$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed No | 67c | 155$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Yes | 35c | 93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Yes | 35c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Yes | 34c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 65c | 81.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 64c | 80.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Yes | 31c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 35c | 70.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 31c | 69.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 65.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Yes | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Yes | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…9d5dbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +121%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.