UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5af42af369943e1f8d9a77f91255a73fba4521490ac1e101023fcf7f0a9c3d6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed No | 74c | 248$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed No | 74c | 185$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 38c | 154.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -10.5wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Yes | 26c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Yes | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…dd87backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked No | 74c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 51.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…11bebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…ec62backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 63c | 38.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 37c | 33.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.