UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8052f82cea13a98093b54531a3414d1946d5947025e9b6ae78cbc273e18aead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 6,373$3,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,355.37 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 53c | 5,897$3,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,107.53 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 45c | 832.7$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Over | 57c | 584.21$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…dcefbacked Over | 54c | 575.03$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Over | 50c | 302$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 44c | 241$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 44c | 153$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…9d5dbacked Over | 54c | 132.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Over | 56c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 56c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 56c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 54c | 55.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…77b1backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 45c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fa…c97dbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Over | 54c | 25.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c50…7403backed Over | 58c | 22.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.