TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,747 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfb81…1cf3backed No0c26,666$80 inLost-$801225%3 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+129.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes37c6,687$2,481 inWon+$4,206.411,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No53c6,200$3,287 inLost-$3,286.71435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked No77c1,277$988 inLost-$988.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Yes10c1,111$107 inWon+$1,004.031,11143.7%486 W · 625 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes13c962.75$123 inWon+$839.68825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No51c500$253 inLost-$253.25244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d20…8326backed Yes13c372.07$50 inWon+$322.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+86%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes24c304.4$72 inWon+$232.72195.3%1 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-77.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes13c159.98$20 inWon+$139.68524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c157.12$37 inWon+$120.251,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes57c153.53$88 inWon+$65.5824356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No66c144.56$95 inLost-$95.462454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa05…a764backed Yes7c143$10 inWon+$132.992045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+539.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes8c142.95$11 inWon+$131.652326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No69c131.69$91 inLost-$91.43850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0523…689ebacked Yes29c109.45$32 inWon+$77.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes11c107.59$12 inWon+$95.7699038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes20c101$20 inWon+$80.61573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c100.86$12 inWon+$88.7727429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed No72c99.99$72 inLost-$71.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b52…0864backed Yes39c74.4$29 inWon+$45.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134b…8988backed Yes47c47.22$22 inWon+$25.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+69.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No69c43$29 inLost-$29.464641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.