Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70515e8d7347d6728d587e742576372588fe911cd0faacb41d7f5761d4d98399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 21c | 2,176$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.04 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa3…8ee2backed Yes | 21c | 1,357$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…dd70backed Yes | 34c | 1,242$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 72c | 631.97$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.94 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 576.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 18c | 555$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes | 19c | 530.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 40c | 400$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 66c | 357.23$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 17c | 323.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 20c | 310$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 27c | 280.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 76c | 249.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 26c | 220.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +278.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 204.33$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d20…8326backed Yes | 25c | 200.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +86%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 200.1$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 59c | 173.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…5777backed Yes | 30c | 164.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 159.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 158$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 71c | 156.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 22c | 154.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 29c | 130.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 68c | 125.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 62c | 106$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 100.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…9cd3backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 56c | 91.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked No | 68c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 64.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…131abacked Yes | 32c | 62.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea5…7f90backed Yes | 43c | 60.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 72c | 54.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 23c | 44.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 71c | 37.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…feb3backed No | 77c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…e492backed No | 74c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7b…a42ebacked No | 77c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.