Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41309ddc754d07ad961f3429f4868c3ca925cd1f3aac8cdbc634011b16376570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 14c | 721.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…f8bbbacked Yes | 23c | 427.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 383.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 14c | 238.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 227.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d20…8326backed Yes | 26c | 192.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +86%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 152.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 121.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 80c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b3…d2aabacked Yes | 21c | 100.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 32c | 74.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 18c | 71.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 67c | 64.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 72c | 47.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.