TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,881 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes46c1,706$780 inLost-$780.371,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No64c1,000$635 inWon+$364.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No66c670.21$444 inWon+$226.565244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes9c390.9$33 inLost-$33.2326237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d20…8326backed Yes15c331.08$50 inLost-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+86%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed No21c250$52 inWon+$197.77825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c182.33$22 inLost-$22.41,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b52…0864backed Yes9c151.29$13 inLost-$13.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes13c145.08$19 inLost-$18.8699038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes10c136.15$14 inLost-$13.782326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes12c110$13 inLost-$13.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes15c109.53$17 inLost-$16.848524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c107.14$14 inLost-$14.1427429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes34c99.88$34 inLost-$33.561010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No30c99.66$30 inWon+$69.78850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes64c90$57 inLost-$57.242454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d4…621abacked Yes19c74.56$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes36c68.29$24 inLost-$24.3824356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes48c40$19 inLost-$19.1410749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbab1…57eabacked Yes51c39.32$20 inLost-$19.940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No36c29.81$11 inWon+$19.174641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c20$14 inWon+$6.135364.2%34 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.