Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kostyantynivka by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68aea75e6e8f82e739631321af3a461ab30f870bb1c52c75ad24866c3ddf5621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 63c | 2,758$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.46 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 16c | 2,250$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 7c | 1,850$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 15c | 1,332$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 1,154$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.1 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed No | 69c | 1,030$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 15c | 1,019$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.23 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…46eebacked No | 2c | 1,009$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 62c | 1,005$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.7 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 79c | 861.37$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.17 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 38c | 568.89$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.07 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 29c | 544.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.67 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 31c | 499.62$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.22 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 14c | 472.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…1d5fbacked No | 65c | 460.91$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 14c | 362.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.44 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 349.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.14 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 59c | 331$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 272.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.89 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…e378backed No | 74c | 270.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 63c | 260.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.32 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 26c | 246.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.02 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 17c | 238$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.1 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 61c | 234.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…f4e9backed No | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 210.53$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.91 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed No | 55c | 196.73$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 65c | 180.61$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a9…4f49backed Yes | 29c | 168.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +1,840.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…c608backed No | 67c | 148.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 19c | 141$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…6734backed No | 71c | 130.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…633ebacked Yes | 79c | 125.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 21c | 116.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 24c | 111.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed No | 28c | 107.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…e8b1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a89…7003backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 31c | 92.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 23c | 85.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 20c | 83.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 82.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…2e43backed Yes | 38c | 79.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…0d34backed No | 31c | 74.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 15c | 72.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…2cecbacked Yes | 21c | 67.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 33c | 60.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3223…c287backed No | 20c | 53.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…da44backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…c4bebacked Yes | 41c | 48.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…03a5backed Yes | 32c | 47.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…05f9backed No | 65c | 45.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 40.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 43c | 40.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…75a5backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4399…789cbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed7…8baebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 48c | 30.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…a1d6backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b0…95c0backed Yes | 39c | 28.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…b99fbacked No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc00…95ccbacked No | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 66c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…6ec2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…158abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…103ebacked No | 70c | 15.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd8…d8f0backed No | 70c | 15.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7801…7e6cbacked No | 69c | 15.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.