TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,253$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.546314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c0…be99backed Yes76c1,681$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.027262.5%45 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No34c1,076$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.3613432.8%44 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10496.1%3 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No23c964.42$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.1576137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No51c777.17$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.173548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed Yes68c752.95$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes39c514.59$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5247138.6%182 W · 289 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c28…ca98backed Yes64c471.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebb…017abacked No44c449.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes74c423$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.518161.7%50 W · 31 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No54c406.21$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.3720729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes65c399.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.994454.5%24 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes79c399.99$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.991154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed No20c398.09$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.991625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23ca…9ae6backed No21c395.97$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.989766%64 W · 33 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea9…a10bbacked No21c300$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2372015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes75c290$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes72c279.83$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1826334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes80c261.68$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.56425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No22c255.12$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.1120331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No18c250$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2051526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6628…ad47backed No37c231.9$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.93724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes53c227$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.328267.1%55 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes66c220$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.212264.8%79 W · 43 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No35c215.19$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4833025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf00a…0d74backed No26c211.54$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+64.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes65c200$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.510272.5%74 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a30…9507backed Yes65c195.34$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c191.71$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5657939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed Yes66c189.85$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.718541.2%35 W · 50 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No35c185.55$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7411723.1%27 W · 90 L-18.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No17c183.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.0217226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dab…9b5fbacked No16c173.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.04333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+105.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes40c172.73$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2329024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No35c157.93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9867442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac39…fc45backed No19c150$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b5…f72cbacked No52c133.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.82560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes39c125.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.09560%3 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick15cpaid+717.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a0a…9229backed Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011566.1%76 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…ad59backed Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001250%6 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9624…dc8fbacked Yes56c121$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed Yes78c119.78$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7811860.2%71 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…4eb0backed Yes71c110$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed Yes63c102.43$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510760.7%65 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x121a…1f69backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677427%20 W · 54 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…613fbacked No29c99.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.993834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No35c78.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.821820.2%44 W · 174 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes64c77.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No36c74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.471520%3 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-63.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes49c71.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.156016.7%10 W · 50 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No32c70$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.515530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x016e…6e8fbacked Yes63c65.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes79c65.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3321861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bab…4f17backed No26c61.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4613235.6%47 W · 85 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ee…26babacked Yes64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.54746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3029…0ab1backed Yes61c59.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362161.9%13 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a74…c3e4backed Yes77c56.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7b4…4fb7backed No45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa990…9969backed No43c55.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes78c52.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.644266.7%28 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5b…e7d8backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.51070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb283…7019backed Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.53138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes55c49.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.616952.2%36 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d0…d98bbacked No35c49.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+83.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes61c47.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2921357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f82…5716backed No42c47.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes64c46.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010067%67 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3211771.8%84 W · 33 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…90babacked No25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+80.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…b953backed No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x471c…9e94backed Yes80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Yes78c39.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.18058.8%47 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6537…b9debacked Yes78c38.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked No32c37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes62c36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.321952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5a…78e9backed No36c34.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.911275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes41c30.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68012.5%10 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x038f…4535backed No39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+70.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad26…3cd6backed No37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93026.7%8 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d62…fc71backed Yes64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24087.5%35 W · 5 L+7.6wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+28.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0d83…3373backed Yes67c29.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bfd…3952backed Yes69c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes79c25.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.93253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9118…c706backed Yes80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202969%20 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick74cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ea…061bbacked Yes66c21.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe36a…2aaebacked Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e2…73bebacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42864.3%18 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3072…9a88backed No60c19.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d9…8169backed Yes77c19.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152060%12 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.