Earnings · resolved market
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c154efaa099309df60521891d8a9de4b3771f0964726da116f55d59dc620806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,253$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 76c | 1,681$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.02 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 34c | 1,076$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.36 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 23c | 964.42$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.15 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 51c | 777.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.17 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 68c | 752.95$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 39c | 514.59$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.52 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…ca98backed Yes | 64c | 471.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…017abacked No | 44c | 449.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 74c | 423$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.51 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 54c | 406.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.37 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 79c | 399.99$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 20c | 398.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 21c | 395.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.98 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…a10bbacked No | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 75c | 290$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 279.83$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes | 80c | 261.68$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 22c | 255.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.11 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 37c | 231.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 53c | 227$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 66c | 220$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 35c | 215.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…0d74backed No | 26c | 211.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 65c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…9507backed Yes | 65c | 195.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 191.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 66c | 189.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 35c | 185.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 17c | 183.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.02 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…9b5fbacked No | 16c | 173.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 172.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 35c | 157.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…fc45backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked No | 52c | 133.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 39c | 125.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 15cpaid | +717.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…1ed5backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…ad59backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9624…dc8fbacked Yes | 56c | 121$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 78c | 119.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…4eb0backed Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed Yes | 63c | 102.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…1f69backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 35c | 78.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes | 64c | 77.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 36c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 49c | 71.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 32c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…6e8fbacked Yes | 63c | 65.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 79c | 65.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 26c | 61.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed Yes | 61c | 59.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Yes | 77c | 56.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…4fb7backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…9969backed No | 43c | 55.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 78c | 52.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…e7d8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 55c | 49.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…d98bbacked No | 35c | 49.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 61c | 47.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…5716backed No | 42c | 47.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…9e94backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 78c | 39.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…b9debacked Yes | 78c | 38.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 36c | 34.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 30.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…3373backed Yes | 67c | 29.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfd…3952backed Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…061bbacked Yes | 66c | 21.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3072…9a88backed No | 60c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.