Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac905a52002097bbdb9fdf5bbf971ccff3ab6d1d8a292c89407c06e5087d8c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 1c | 10,015$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked Yes | 5c | 2,345$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 69c | 2,119$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.2 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed Yes | 9c | 1,439$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.25 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 6c | 1,250$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.62 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 75c | 1,000$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.26 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…52debacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 765.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 70c | 697.54$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 7c | 605.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 51c | 449.32$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 10c | 406.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.5 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 388.9$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 11c | 381.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 12c | 377.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.41 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 354.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…caf2backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 259.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.29 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 17c | 249.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.53 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 11c | 236.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.28 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 16c | 218.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.23 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 69c | 207.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 12c | 205.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 175.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 16c | 171.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…bbbdbacked Yes | 8c | 160.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +314.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 10c | 156.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 9c | 155.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.17 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 7c | 155.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 13c | 144.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 24c | 120.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed Yes | 57c | 112.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2f87backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +218%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…f05fbacked Yes | 12c | 87.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2390backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09e…d1f2backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.