Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67213cb0bc46d635a7837278c3f49229bdd2338959f61a92ad0ba9adf7a0241c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bf1…6d22backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked No | 61c | 2,565$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.47 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed No | 10c | 1,837$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.55 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 11c | 635.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.14 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 44c | 403.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 69c | 320$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 46c | 265.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 66c | 255.31$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.75 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 227.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 220$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 60c | 217.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 216.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 48c | 209.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 200.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 60c | 191.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 190$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed No | 79c | 184$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f3…aae4backed Yes | 69c | 143.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 35c | 137.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 39c | 100.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 89.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…caaebacked Yes | 66c | 75.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 41c | 74.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 48c | 72.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 62c | 72.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 40c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 60c | 63.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d37…35e4backed Yes | 51c | 50.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…f245backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 34c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8484…4de9backed Yes | 60c | 42.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 63c | 41.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…9262backed No | 51c | 39.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 53c | 38.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked No | 60c | 36.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 35.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…c430backed Yes | 69c | 33.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabad…2e9ebacked No | 35c | 32.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42d…a02dbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…e1bdbacked Yes | 69c | 29.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…32dabacked No | 59c | 28.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 63c | 28.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on November 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.