CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: Complexity vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f419129e1224a6bff5fe847520df739bb461afc00656ca4fbecf737986cdd87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HEROICof Complexity, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Complexity | 65c | 7,662$4,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,948.32 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed HEROIC | 32c | 6,078$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,133.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed HEROIC | 44c | 6,024$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,353.61 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…504cbacked Complexity | 67c | 3,786$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Complexity | 49c | 2,278$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.38 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed Complexity | 50c | 2,008$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Complexity | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…549ebacked Complexity | 57c | 1,749$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Complexity | 52c | 1,580$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.06 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed HEROIC | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked HEROIC | 58c | 1,222$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.75 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed HEROIC | 58c | 1,096$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…11febacked Complexity | 5c | 1,075$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed HEROIC | 32c | 1,060$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.65 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Complexity | 47c | 1,048$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.12 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ffaabacked HEROIC | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Complexity | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Complexity | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed HEROIC | 66c | 759.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed HEROIC | 44c | 756.33$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.48 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Complexity | 57c | 686.82$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HEROIC | 51c | 600$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Complexity | 60c | 588.02$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.99 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed HEROIC | 50c | 586.07$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed HEROIC | 77c | 580$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked HEROIC | 36c | 557.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.59 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked HEROIC | 57c | 523.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.29 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed HEROIC | 60c | 507.59$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.24 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed HEROIC | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 303 | 40.3%122 W · 181 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed Complexity | 50c | 460$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked HEROIC | 48c | 454$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Complexity | 45c | 415$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked HEROIC | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked HEROIC | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked HEROIC | 59c | 386.44$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.44 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Complexity | 68c | 366.38$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 39c | 358.24$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked HEROIC | 58c | 310.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed HEROIC | 37c | 301.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…1218backed Complexity | 69c | 301$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed HEROIC | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HEROIC | 33c | 255$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…80e3backed HEROIC | 41c | 245.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked HEROIC | 45c | 223$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HEROIC | 51c | 205.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…a916backed Complexity | 54c | 174.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HEROIC | 39c | 170$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed HEROIC | 51c | 166.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked Complexity | 69c | 154.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Complexity | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked HEROIC | 43c | 140.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…8230backed HEROIC | 69c | 123.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Complexity | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Complexity | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed HEROIC | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed HEROIC | 50c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed HEROIC | 51c | 67.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed HEROIC | 55c | 59.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked HEROIC | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f5…8febbacked HEROIC | 38c | 47.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…c83dbacked HEROIC | 38c | 45.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…db1bbacked Complexity | 60c | 41.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…f8e6backed HEROIC | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Complexity | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed Complexity | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…0a71backed Complexity | 59c | 39.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…8c88backed Complexity | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…a9f0backed Complexity | 56c | 32.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…f5c4backed HEROIC | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Complexity | 50c | 25.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…fc52backed HEROIC | 56c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.