Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x229fb5b7a630bc2e71c06d95c5977c5dea3e82d93dc039cc956a00d0153b9a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed No | 79c | 1,909$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 64c | 1,542$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.03 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed No | 29c | 1,086$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 66c | 719.68$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 68c | 689.99$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.4 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 61c | 598.38$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.87 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 14c | 571$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.06 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 5c | 543.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.03 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 504.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed Yes | 72c | 499.99$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 384.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.37 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 52c | 315.6$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 17c | 310.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 225.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 15c | 217.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 76c | 180.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 153$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 54c | 151.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 59c | 148.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 21c | 145.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 76c | 142.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…0ddebacked Yes | 15c | 131.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 122.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 42c | 117.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 63c | 109.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 108.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 59c | 100.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…2d92backed Yes | 56c | 77.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe244…df35backed Yes | 65c | 76.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…7c5abacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 29c | 68.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cb…4abfbacked Yes | 68c | 57.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 51c | 56.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 50c | 50.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…58e6backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed Yes | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 41c | 46.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 79c | 43.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…39c0backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 80c | 28.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1564…6e6bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeef…9344backed No | 53c | 26.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab3…f2e9backed No | 47c | 25.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…5183backed Yes | 58c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…151cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…602fbacked Yes | 65c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…a30ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6654…1052backed Yes | 64c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 63c | 19.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 75c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f9…4277backed Yes | 65c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.