AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481748668b73049bb57c6d6e6e9f9cf99284d19491fabe11bed5007212ac7c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 72c | 2,630$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.9 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,614$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.51 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 14c | 978.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 54c | 665.54$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.88 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 35c | 614.21$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 46c | 565.75$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 60c | 547.75$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.85 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 35c | 500.31$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.19 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 64c | 470.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 17c | 450$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 62c | 323.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 45c | 319.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.06 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 64c | 300.75$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 66c | 219.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 199.93$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…3d8fbacked Yes | 44c | 146.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 65c | 119.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 33c | 94.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed Yes | 29c | 69.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 65.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa7…0b13backed Yes | 47c | 64.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 54.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc133…1809backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…a6c3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…79cebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…9af7backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…8712backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…87fbbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…a6c0backed Yes | 63c | 47.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…71a2backed No | 54c | 43.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 25c | 40.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 41c | 28.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…44d4backed Yes | 49c | 26.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…58a1backed Yes | 65c | 24.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 70c | 23.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…d9a3backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…f14fbacked Yes | 49c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…4233backed Yes | 49c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?this page
- Will AutoSnore: Snoring Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will FL Studio Mobile be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.