AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d3975562f1878ff9fd6e2cc56a9e12a4806854955ae24cb201df17bd564633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 44c | 1,943$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.34 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…ae93backed No | 57c | 1,400$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 29c | 1,126$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.78 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 32c | 373.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 60c | 331.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 53c | 290.77$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 56c | 224.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…3d8fbacked Yes | 37c | 219$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 40c | 153.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 43c | 145.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…f10bbacked Yes | 48c | 121.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…8fe8backed Yes | 56c | 108.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 50c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 91.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 55c | 78.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 71c | 51.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 56c | 50.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 49.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 49.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed No | 60c | 49.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e7f9backed Yes | 44c | 46.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 43c | 43.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc517…0f0fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…2d8ebacked No | 60c | 34.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…72fcbacked No | 52c | 28.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf2…fcecbacked Yes | 49c | 26.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cb…1d0cbacked Yes | 41c | 25.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…ae0abacked No | 60c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e8…b4c5backed Yes | 49c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d3…1a34backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?this page
- Will AutoSnore: Snoring Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will FL Studio Mobile be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.