Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad80c727ab5851afa6fef64379baea411cc56f93b242388f92770878642c88e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 4c | 13,483$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.42 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…c19abacked No | 0c | 10,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…05babacked No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,065$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 80c | 2,722$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.08 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 12c | 1,666$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 11c | 1,065$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 37c | 999.49$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 49c | 735.29$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.24 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 3c | 599.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 51c | 469.66$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.47 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 38c | 448.04$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.48 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 432.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa942…0221backed No | 69c | 403.84$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…020abacked No | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes | 77c | 278.55$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 51c | 219.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…4ad3backed No | 67c | 210.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 80c | 187.4$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked No | 62c | 162.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…7e94backed Yes | 62c | 160.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 66c | 151.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 17c | 115.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked No | 44c | 114.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…a354backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 49c | 103.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…2134backed No | 44c | 100.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…cf7fbacked No | 45c | 95.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…6cd1backed No | 55c | 95.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…2715backed Yes | 54c | 93.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 54c | 93.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 35c | 87.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…4df5backed No | 46c | 86.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 79.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…77f9backed Yes | 58c | 63.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…aa26backed No | 21c | 63.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…3790backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 49c | 56.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…da63backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…b119backed Yes | 61c | 49.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 20c | 49.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…e031backed Yes | 57c | 49.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc031…2c43backed No | 61c | 41.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…0065backed Yes | 49c | 40.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…2068backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…bd8abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 39.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…451bbacked No | 44c | 36.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…05a0backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…2c2dbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…d90bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 45c | 28.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…b253backed No | 53c | 28.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 51c | 25.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 43c | 25.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb2…1c14backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…6ab0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…2640backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…cc42backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…0d6fbacked Yes | 60c | 18.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…abbabacked No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…953cbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 31?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.