Earnings · resolved market
Will Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x608f47dd05ad38c3b79cb669918fe018fa6cb915b8a43e5c7d2ef673cddda17b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 25c | 3,698$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,781.59 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…9747backed Yes | 77c | 2,355$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Yes | 75c | 1,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 12c | 863.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 67c | 515.71$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.33 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 62c | 323$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 16c | 321.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.91 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 34c | 315$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 36c | 277.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 56c | 222.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 34c | 188.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 67c | 178.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 59c | 160$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…7e26backed Yes | 45c | 136.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 47c | 128.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked Yes | 51c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 52c | 112.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 66c | 111$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 43c | 93.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 41c | 87.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked No | 48c | 85.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 60c | 82.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 57c | 81.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 49c | 75.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 70.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3203…d145backed Yes | 36c | 60.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 58.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 54c | 55.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…9e75backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 67c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed Yes | 52c | 44.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 37c | 40.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 40.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 31c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…d37abacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…8d7fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…f885backed No | 46c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed No | 60c | 26.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked No | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7327backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c361backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b432backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…792ebacked Yes | 68c | 19.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.