Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cfb016177d8a46a1c2ede7b180bdea59ee33cc104ace71efb288e7107d552da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ef…5ea3backed No | 3c | 4,592$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…1a5abacked No | 4c | 4,110$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…1fb7backed No | 5c | 2,413$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed No | 1c | 2,288$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb33…c377backed No | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…b899backed No | 10c | 2,189$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 12c | 1,666$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…31c7backed No | 1c | 1,445$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…6ccebacked No | 2c | 1,149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,036$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.67 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…2698backed No | 2c | 1,035$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…e6b7backed No | 2c | 954.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…f3c7backed No | 2c | 801.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 685.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…19eebacked No | 3c | 648.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked No | 2c | 582.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 52c | 572.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.52 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 33c | 457.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 28c | 423.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.53 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 12c | 418.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc071…518ebacked No | 3c | 404.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 29c | 393.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.59 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 32c | 215.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed No | 71c | 183$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 38c | 165.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…729ebacked No | 65c | 154.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 68c | 149.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…df27backed No | 68c | 147.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…4ad3backed No | 70c | 142.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…9220backed No | 74c | 141.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked No | 71c | 140.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…bc03backed No | 68c | 130$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked No | 68c | 110.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 105.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…506fbacked No | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…8fccbacked No | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ff…fbfcbacked No | 70c | 79.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked No | 65c | 79.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a1c1backed No | 73c | 76.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 33c | 68.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 30c | 60.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7269…4ed8backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 66c | 56.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…addcbacked No | 73c | 47.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 33c | 43.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…00a9backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed No | 66c | 39.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…93b7backed No | 73c | 37.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a92…0616backed No | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 64c | 28.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08c…318abacked No | 69c | 28.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754a…d392backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…b86cbacked No | 69c | 21.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…0ee5backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed No | 58c | 20.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…9ad6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…f10fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…efa5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…cc42backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…abbabacked No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…f424backed No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.