UFC · resolved market
UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12a9ea008e6f94328e711591d75e876f29cfa13aecb19dd0c00093299d44c1a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabatiniof Mariscal, Sabatini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabatini | 54c | 19,765$10,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,089.77 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Mariscal | 47c | 16,258$7,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,643 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Sabatini | 53c | 16,012$8,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,585.84 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Mariscal | 40c | 15,892$6,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,394.4 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Sabatini | 56c | 14,739$8,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,533.66 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Sabatini | 60c | 11,976$7,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,828.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Mariscal | 46c | 8,751$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,025.42 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Mariscal | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Sabatini | 54c | 6,981$3,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.01 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Mariscal | 46c | 6,898$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,182.71 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mariscal | 46c | 5,712$2,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.74 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Mariscal | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Sabatini | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Mariscal | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mariscal | 45c | 4,229$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.13 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Sabatini | 53c | 3,404$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.95 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Sabatini | 63c | 3,224$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Sabatini | 56c | 3,045$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.36 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Mariscal | 46c | 2,968$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.28 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Mariscal | 48c | 2,800$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Mariscal | 47c | 2,400$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x188c…c62bbacked Sabatini | 53c | 2,353$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Sabatini | 54c | 1,706$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.43 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Mariscal | 49c | 1,556$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Mariscal | 46c | 1,512$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.37 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Mariscal | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Sabatini | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariscal | 46c | 1,499$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.58 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Sabatini | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.07 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Mariscal | 52c | 1,370$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Mariscal | 48c | 1,359$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.32 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Mariscal | 45c | 1,300$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Mariscal | 45c | 1,256$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.26 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Sabatini | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Mariscal | 46c | 1,153$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.59 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Sabatini | 53c | 1,044$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.68 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Mariscal | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked Sabatini | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Mariscal | 47c | 911.57$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.44 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Sabatini | 55c | 909.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Mariscal | 46c | 889.99$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.4 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Sabatini | 51c | 839.59$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.4 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Mariscal | 46c | 833$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mariscal | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Mariscal | 41c | 777.86$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.82 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Sabatini | 53c | 750.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.75 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Mariscal | 47c | 750$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.5 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Mariscal | 51c | 738.1$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.37 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Mariscal | 53c | 725.77$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.2 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Mariscal | 48c | 664.54$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Mariscal | 46c | 652$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.92 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Sabatini | 53c | 646.06$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Sabatini | 52c | 613.1$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.29 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Mariscal | 44c | 612.76$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Mariscal | 50c | 606$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Sabatini | 57c | 600$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.41 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Mariscal | 46c | 597.59$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.89 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Sabatini | 51c | 524.13$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.82 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…05e4backed Sabatini | 50c | 518.92$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mariscal | 47c | 505$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.35 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Mariscal | 47c | 500.88$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Mariscal | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Mariscal | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…934cbacked Sabatini | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed Mariscal | 47c | 497.89$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.01 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mariscal | 47c | 485.74$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mariscal | 43c | 471.33$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mariscal | 44c | 455.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Mariscal | 46c | 419.51$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Sabatini | 50c | 417$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Sabatini | 53c | 415.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Sabatini | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…c511backed Sabatini | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Sabatini | 70c | 400$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Mariscal | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Mariscal | 45c | 388$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sabatini | 54c | 362$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sabatini | 50c | 358.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.37 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Sabatini | 52c | 357.31$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.51 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Sabatini | 56c | 355.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…e9dabacked Mariscal | 75c | 347.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Sabatini | 54c | 326.74$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Mariscal | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Mariscal | 49c | 300.39$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Sabatini | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Sabatini | 52c | 299.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sabatini | 56c | 298.39$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Sabatini | 54c | 277.72$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Mariscal | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Sabatini | 52c | 249.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…dcefbacked Sabatini | 60c | 241.17$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Mariscal | 46c | 228.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Sabatini | 52c | 216.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Mariscal | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mariscal | 30c | 210$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Sabatini | 52c | 208.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96a6…f8aebacked Mariscal | 48c | 208.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Mariscal | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aea…badebacked Mariscal | 49c | 205.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Mariscal | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Chepe Mariscal win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Pat Sabatini win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.