TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabatiniof Mariscal, Sabatini
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Sabatini54c19,765$10,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,089.777233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Mariscal47c16,258$7,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6436451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Sabatini53c16,012$8,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,585.8422259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Mariscal40c15,892$6,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,394.429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Sabatini56c14,739$8,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,533.666346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Sabatini60c11,976$7,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,828.994835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Mariscal46c8,751$4,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,025.428220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Mariscal1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805012%6 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+272.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Sabatini54c6,981$3,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,202.0128849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Mariscal46c6,898$3,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,182.717841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mariscal46c5,712$2,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.7437152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Mariscal46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30090%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Sabatini52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Mariscal47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.982254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Mariscal45c4,229$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.135244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Sabatini53c3,404$1,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.9520233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20cb…719bbacked Sabatini63c3,224$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.311741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Sabatini56c3,045$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.3620954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Mariscal46c2,968$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.2812541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Mariscal48c2,800$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3443943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Mariscal47c2,400$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1289228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Sabatini53c2,353$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Sabatini54c1,706$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.4313039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Mariscal49c1,556$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.551346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Mariscal46c1,512$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.3721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Mariscal47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70517752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Sabatini54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69016247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariscal46c1,499$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.5818453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Sabatini54c1,389$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.079164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Mariscal52c1,370$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7161060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Mariscal48c1,359$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.327343.8%32 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Mariscal45c1,300$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59013650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mariscal45c1,256$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.266850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Sabatini51c1,200$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5883534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Mariscal46c1,153$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.5913735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Sabatini53c1,044$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.6830964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Mariscal45c999.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45017850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d32…563abacked Sabatini54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.931656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Mariscal47c911.57$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.446533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Sabatini55c909.66$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.661241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Mariscal46c889.99$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.426743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Sabatini51c839.59$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.411746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Mariscal46c833$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.323053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mariscal47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37639959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Mariscal41c777.86$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.829148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Sabatini53c750.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.758058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Mariscal47c750$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Mariscal51c738.1$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3737754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Mariscal53c725.77$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.25356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb575…2090backed Mariscal48c664.54$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Mariscal46c652$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.9248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Sabatini53c646.06$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.652948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Sabatini52c613.1$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.295440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Mariscal44c612.76$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2723534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Mariscal50c606$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30310961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Sabatini57c600$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.416443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Mariscal46c597.59$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.8990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Sabatini51c524.13$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8223850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e2d…05e4backed Sabatini50c518.92$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.651450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mariscal47c505$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3514929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Mariscal47c500.88$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.414425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Mariscal45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22526352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Mariscal49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2453315.2%5 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a8c…934cbacked Sabatini45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Mariscal47c497.89$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.012630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Mariscal47c485.74$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.318038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mariscal43c471.33$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8720139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mariscal44c455.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1953956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Mariscal46c419.51$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4851533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Sabatini50c417$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Sabatini53c415.2$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.22166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Sabatini54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18416543.6%72 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2836…c511backed Sabatini55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Sabatini70c400$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.42437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Mariscal47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18819531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Mariscal45c388$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.63525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sabatini54c362$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.824040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Sabatini50c358.2$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3721247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Sabatini52c357.31$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.517736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Sabatini56c355.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8913450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f2…e9dabacked Mariscal75c347.96$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Sabatini54c326.74$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9222334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Mariscal48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbb…4a56backed Mariscal49c300.39$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Sabatini53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1418835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Sabatini52c299.98$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9914144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Sabatini56c298.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7514530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Sabatini54c277.72$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8611332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Mariscal47c255.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207233.3%24 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Sabatini52c249.98$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9922661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7019…dcefbacked Sabatini60c241.17$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.47771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Mariscal46c228.54$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.137545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Sabatini52c216.46$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0915839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Mariscal47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014045.7%64 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mariscal30c210$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.779336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Sabatini52c208.34$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96a6…f8aebacked Mariscal48c208.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Mariscal48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aea…badebacked Mariscal49c205.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004963.3%31 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+49.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Mariscal49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008752.9%46 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.