Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x826cf1ff57f0c4eae3280bb6554c37dcb421f7a6d9684ee2eb0c8fb92448db24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 4c | 2,367$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 63c | 1,616$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.09 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 1,020$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,006$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 654.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked No | 50c | 570.67$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…5c8abacked Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 54c | 296.36$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…737abacked Yes | 59c | 170.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 46c | 160$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed Yes | 62c | 152.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 36c | 120.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…d121backed Yes | 66c | 101.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 32c | 99.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 60c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…6404backed Yes | 34c | 88.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 34c | 80.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 32c | 74.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 71.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 47c | 65.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 46c | 56.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…fefebacked No | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…aea1backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 29.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 27.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…a70cbacked No | 59c | 24.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 48c | 23.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…1ca8backed No | 60c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on December 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.