Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f76ab8561e25dbe0645b676414b7ac4c9943c0e53f428d7d12154ac285b67ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,227$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 11c | 997.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 11c | 543.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 51c | 300.27$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 283$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 22c | 281.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 10c | 154.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 23c | 147.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 22c | 130.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…6404backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…deb6backed Yes | 22c | 89.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 64.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 63c | 35.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…208bbacked No | 75c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 70c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 17.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on December 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.