Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9110fd52ec39b32571b4a9981f6876aec94b8d233335c3d05642dab3d9a62b95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 34c | 974.04$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.33 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 33c | 500$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 35c | 358.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 311$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 204$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…a52bbacked Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 34c | 40.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the Fed decision?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.