Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x516ded9d7f30fb7e413e75c41f8bd216b7caef11d00bd8a1452416923792e1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 600$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 56c | 536.62$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 411$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 42c | 353$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 60c | 226$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 58c | 224.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 51c | 101.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 48c | 94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf806…9762backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.