Music · resolved market
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 30–35 million views on Friday at noon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40cd42d4dab33e1aab7f34fd7593d46c44914f6e92f4029e69537c18154feb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 5,384$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…e92ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…2a38backed Yes | 23c | 2,334$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 52c | 1,259$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…4eafbacked No | 3c | 1,138$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,104.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…0c39backed Yes | 2c | 1,117$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…df70backed Yes | 1c | 1,031$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked No | 4c | 950$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,000%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 5c | 762.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 51c | 720$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.24 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +191.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 40c | 503.31$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…6031backed No | 53c | 495.82$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 24c | 437$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 6c | 413.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 331.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.21 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 14c | 261.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 257.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.26 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 9c | 206$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +301.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 55c | 186.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…ec34backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 32c | 130$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 41c | 130$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 111$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 29c | 102.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…d12cbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 38c | 67.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 77c | 57.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 28c | 53.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236c…cfd0backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 31cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 30–35 million views on Friday at noon?this page
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have 50 million or more views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 25–30 million views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 35–40 million views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 40–45 million views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 45–50 million views on Friday at noon?Yes won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have less than 25 million views on Friday at noon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.