Music · resolved market
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 25–30 million views on Friday at noon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65315e61bf44fe8af7ee3c47eecd51bb5df3e909657fff91f81a19425a16a865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,817$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 6,096$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1,869.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,062$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Yes | 7c | 602.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 14c | 534.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 7c | 385$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +191.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 44c | 343.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 9c | 338$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…f190backed Yes | 23c | 197.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…6031backed Yes | 43c | 158.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 154.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 18c | 154.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 141.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 128.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 60c | 57.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 25–30 million views on Friday at noon?this page
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have 50 million or more views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 30–35 million views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 35–40 million views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 40–45 million views on Friday at noon?No won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 45–50 million views on Friday at noon?Yes won
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have less than 25 million views on Friday at noon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.