NFL · resolved market
Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c4db06bfdab644a6cf9ccebfbee149f977ad33b02b2138eace2b8d185006311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b24…e4a6backed No | 43c | 765$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 50c | 720$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 50c | 500$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 12c | 276.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +520.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…d68cbacked Yes | 57c | 260$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 50c | 236.22$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…a724backed Yes | 57c | 225$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 155.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…716abacked Yes | 57c | 142$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…408cbacked Yes | 57c | 138$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 36c | 113$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 62c | 60.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…15c1backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Yes | 49c | 49.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 50c | 26.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef3…c555backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired?this page
- Will Aaron Glenn be the next coach fired?No won
- Will Brian Daboll be the next coach fired?Yes won
- Will Kevin Stefanski be the next coach fired?No won
- Will Zac Taylor be the next coach fired?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.