World Politics · resolved market
Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x433732308a4fceee1cb2cf702a3ff2b3b9ebe540533c3cda4281f48bb48adb0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 6c | 15,691$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.26 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 27c | 7,640$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,717$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed Yes | 0c | 5,355$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 30c | 2,401$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.49 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 25c | 2,341$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.61 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 17c | 2,284$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.56 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 4c | 1,744$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…b8cfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,664$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…0ef0backed Yes | 7c | 1,263$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 14c | 1,064$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 35c | 1,034$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.81 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked No | 75c | 927.74$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 27c | 599.86$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.14 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 6c | 432.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 29c | 400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…5fc6backed Yes | 33c | 390.27$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 29c | 375$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 352.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 30c | 297$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…6264backed No | 71c | 295.4$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 30c | 256$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 28c | 244.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 18c | 240.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…1a82backed Yes | 27c | 200.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…9f0dbacked No | 69c | 186.55$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked No | 74c | 135.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed No | 65c | 123.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 74c | 121$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1154…7937backed Yes | 17c | 115.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…02c4backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 93.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…b6febacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…af9dbacked Yes | 33c | 75.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…3942backed Yes | 32c | 62.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…9c1abacked Yes | 33c | 60.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…5dc0backed Yes | 33c | 45.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…4ff3backed Yes | 33c | 33.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773f…0b6dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?this page
- Will H win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will KrF win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?Yes won
- Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will SV win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will another party win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.