Middle East · resolved market
Iran response to Israel by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x394f3dc5bc4896167c842b17d388b0223f3c2ae3ae49c54c823331f0aced132d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 8c | 4,285$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.49 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 9c | 1,646$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…14a4backed Yes | 9c | 1,644$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,572$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 8c | 1,491$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 15c | 1,306$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 11c | 1,237$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,141$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 10c | 952.59$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…b856backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 8c | 443.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ed…1503backed Yes | 17c | 357.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…92c7backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.